I believe we have reached a period of historical correction or, if you will, a correction in the base 7 phenomenon. Events may follow a pattern of every 7 years or at least multiple of 7 years fairly consistently, then some of them may begin to deviate by a few years over the course of a decade or more until a new period of sevens is achieved. The deviation is inconsistent and many events will often retain their "every seven years" capability pretty much forever, while others stretch out and start a new period. How many events deviate may vary from period to period; more in some, less than in others.
For example, the two Yugoslav (Balkans) wars of 1991, the ten-day Slovenian Independence War begun June 26, 1991 and the Croatian War of Independence (Serbo-Croat War) begun October 1, 1991, resumed seven years later (actually six years and eight months later to be precise) in late February 1998 in Kosovo. No repeats occurred in 2005, but another seven years later might well have seen a new Balkans war or else a Balkans-like situation in the Middle East by either February or June 2012.
A Balkans type series of protests and insurrections began with Arab Spring on December 18, 2010 (I predicted several years earlier that it would begin in Egypt in November 2010 for reasons other than the Balkans wars precedent ... I was only off by one month).
Still this was not yet a war.
Like 1991, the wars in the Middle East began as two: 1) The Libyan Civil War begun February 15, 2011 and ending on October 23, 2012 (A Libyan Crisis continues there to this day) and 2) The Syrian Civil War, often wrongly said to have begun with the civil uprisings of March 15, 2011. The Libyan war began the same way, with protests, but within few days there was fighting with military equipment on both sides. Thus the start of the protests and the start of the war were the same.
But not so in Syria.
The early insurgency phase of the Syrian Civil War did not begin until July 29, 2011. However, it was the 2012–13 Escalation to Civil War in Syria, properly speaking, that marked the true start of the real civil war. A UN-mediated cease fire attempt during the end of the early insurgency phase (April–May 2012) deteriorated into radical violence, escalating the conflict level to a full-fledged civil war.
"Following the Houla massacre of 25 May 2012, in which 108 people were summarily executed, and the subsequent Free Syrian Army (FSA) ultimatum to the Syrian Ba'athist government, the ceasefire practically collapsed, as the FSA began nationwide offensives against government troops. On 1 June 2012, President Assad vowed to crush the anti-government uprising. On 12 June 2012, the UN for the first time officially proclaimed Syria to be in a state of civil war. The conflict began moving into the two largest cities, Damascus and Aleppo."
One can say the civil war began in earnest with either the Houla Massacre (May 25, 2012), Assad's formal declaration of war on insurgents (June 1, 2012) or the UN official proclamation that a full state of civil war in Syria was now in progress as of July 12, 2012.
Despite this, the UN later issued a public statement that in their view the civil war should be retroactively regarded as beginning with the protests of March 15, 2011. This remains falsely in history articles and history books to this day. Indeed, in June 2012, there was a huge chasm of disagreement in the UN and international community that Syria had yet reached the stage of a full-blown civil war. Even in July 2012 the king of Jordan thought, at worst, that Syria was still only at the brink of civil war. The fact is that the Assad regime did very little else than engage in self defense measures until May 2012. There is no question what has happened since then.
My projection for the beginning of civil war in Syria was not until July 2013 ... based on the start of the third Yugoslav war, the longest one, the one in Bosnia and also on the start of the Spanish Civil War. Bosnia began in April 1992, Spain in July 1936. I chose July because I felt Spain was the real beginning of World War II and that Syria would be the real beginning of World War III.
So, The Syrian Civil War began a full year sooner than I anticipated. But it did in fact occur twenty-one (21) years after the start of the first two Yugoslav wars in Slovenia and Croatia in 1991 and fourteen years after the beginning of the War in Kosovo. I had a choice between using 1991 or 1992 as the precedent, but chose 1992 rather than 1991 (for reasons given regarding Spain's role in WW2 in 1936).
I also believed the character of the war in Syria would be similar to that of Bosnia: that it would be a war that lingered for nearly four years. In that I was both right and wrong.
And here is where the idea of a base 7 correction or historical correction comes in with late fulfillments of events.
I think we can agree that the whole Yugoslav mess began in 1991 and likewise the Syrian/northern Middle East mess commenced in 2012. We can also agree, however, that Syria most resembles Bosnia.
Even so, Bosnia ran from April 1992 to December 1995: three years and eight months. Even the Serbo-Croat war ended in November 1995, lasting four years and seven months. However you work it, the Syrian war should have ended by either March 2016 or else by February 2017. Yet, here it is November 2018 and it is still ongoing. It has run for over six years and four months.
What could have been the end of the war in March 2016 occurred during a partial cease-fire when Syrian government forces (SGF) with support from Russia and Iran successfully captured Palmyra from ISIL. However, peace failed to be maintained due to the Aleppo Summer Campaign begun in June followed by SDF advances and Turkish military intervention in August.
What could have been the end of the war in February 2017 was the collapse of yet another cease-fire, the Al-Badia school massacre by Russian and US air strikes, and the Khan Shaykhun chemical attack by Syria which resulted in a punitive US air strike with Tomahawk missiles against the Syrian government's Shayrat Air Base (condemned by Russia). This was followed by more attacks by SGF and Turkey, intense fighting near Hama, and Turkish air strikes.
A partial cease-fire was again achieved in July 2017 and lasted until December with some sweeping-up operations of liberation military moves. However, in January 2018 tensions broke out again with more fighting near Hama, the shooting down of an Israeli F-16 fighter jet by Syria, a Turkish attack on Kurdish held positions, and yet another chemical attack by Syria in the city of Douma. On April 14, 2018, the United States, United Kingdom, and France launched missile strikes on multiple government targets in Syria as a response to the Syrian chemical attack. In July a new attack by SGF and Russian forces was led against provinces on Syria's border with Jordan. In September, Israel struck multiple Iranian targets in western Syria and a Russian plane was shot down accidentally by Syria. Russia blamed Israel for the shooting down of the plane. Russia has since been arming Syria with its own deadly S-300 air-defense missile systems with much international opposition. Two days ago it was reported that Israel warned Russia it may target its S-300 missiles systems and yesterday Iran threatened to open up a new war against the US in Syria and Iraq.
Between the end of the Bosnian conflict until the start of the Kosovo War there was a period of over two years of peace (in 1996 and 1997). There has been no peace in Syria, especially one lasting for two years. A new Kosovo in the Middle East should begin in Syria in February 2019, but the Syrian War has never even ended.
The war in Syria has stretched out two years and eight months longer than Bosnia and three years longer than Spain.
This indicates a base 7 period of correction, an historical correction, may well be in place. Instead of a new war (like Kosovo) there may only be further escalation of the existing war in Syria and the adjacent affected regions of Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel with continued involvement of Russia, Iran, the US, the Kurds, and ISIS and similar groups. It may spread to Jordan, Egypt, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia.
By March 2020 it may become a NATO war ... and if that happens, spread north into the Balkans and ignite World War III. It may well last until 21 years after the end of the fourth and last Yugoslav conflict in Macedonia in 2001. That war ended on August 13, 2001. Thus, war can easily continue and escalate in the Middle East until August 2022 by which time it may or may not end. If the period of correction continues, it could extend out three years or more beyond that date (2025 or 2026?).
Then again the war in Syria may finally, and absolutely, end very soon. But even if it does, it has extended far beyond the limits of the conflicts in Croatia and Bosnia in the 1990s or Spain in the 1930s.
Syria therefore is one of the signs we are in an historical or base 7 period of correction.
It may well be that the 2016 election of Donald Trump ushered in the base 7 correction and a new historical period.
Despite all this, for practical purposes I have noted singular repetitive events occurring no later than two years and two months beyond their projected dates. That will be our "statute of limitations" for the time being.
The 2017 Las Vegas shooting by gunman Stephen Paddock on October 1, 2017 is a good example. It was compared many times in the media to the University of Texas tower shooting by Charles Whitman on August 1, 1966. I had used the Whitman case as the precedent for a similar event happening again in August 2015 of a high altitude marksman shooting an even larger number of people on the ground than in Texas. I also said that the event would bring Charles Whitman's crime into remembrance.
But that event seemingly failed to happen ... until October 1, 2017. Total elapsed time after the August 2015 vector was exactly two years and two months. Note also that both events occurred on the 1st of the month.
There have been other cases similar to this in recent years, especially since 2012 and 2013.
It would appear then that 2 years and 2 months is perhaps the time of limitations beyond which an event cannot repeat unless it is repeating a different yet similar event from another timeline. But I will have to research this further. Usually though all is told within 18 months and often less. The Syrian War lasting as long as it has is the only example thus far of a three year delay with one possible reason being that the conflict may be the true beginning of World War 3.